Combat Edge Intelligence

Kelvin Gastelum vs Tim Kennedy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-11-0Record18-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'9"Height5'11"
71"Reach74,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamJackson-Wink MMA

What's at stake

Tim Kennedy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+13→ 1706
If they lose-11→ 1682
Tim KennedyNow 1730
If they win+14→ 1744
If they lose-18→ 1712

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.67
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
42%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.53
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.84
57%
Strike defense
62%
1.01
Takedown avg.
2.58
34%
Takedown accuracy
35%
60%
Takedown defense
71%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.71

Trajectory

Kelvin GastelumTim Kennedy
170017501800201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (30%)
KO/TKO
8 (44%)
5 (25%)
Submission
6 (33%)
9 (45%)
Decision
4 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum66%
Tim Kennedy 34%Elo baseline: 45%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 66% favorite over Tim Kennedy in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Tim Kennedy's way (45%).

Tim Kennedy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1730 to 1693, a 37-point edge.

Tim Kennedy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Tim Kennedy 78%.

Tim Kennedy carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.