Kelvin Gastelum vs Tyron Woodley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
20-11-0Record19-7-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'9"
71"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Fight ReadyTeamAmerican Top Team Evolution
What's at stake
Tyron Woodley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Kelvin Gastelum carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1708
If they lose-9→ 1684
If they win+9→ 1783
If they lose-15→ 1759
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1715 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1761 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kelvin GastelumTyron Woodley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tyron Woodley51%
Kelvin Gastelum 49%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Tyron Woodley a 51% favorite over Kelvin Gastelum in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Tyron Woodley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1693, a 81-point edge.
Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Kelvin Gastelum finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Tyron Woodley 63%.
Kelvin Gastelum and Tyron Woodley share 1 common opponent: Vicente Luque.
Tyron Woodley carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.