Kevin Caperna vs Sabir Talmoust
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Caperna59%
Sabir Talmoust 41%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Caperna a 59% favorite over Sabir Talmoust in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1451 vs 1440), separated by just 11 points.
Kevin Caperna enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Sabir Talmoust enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-4-0Record1-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 ratedTeamCobra Fighting Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+23→ 1474
If they lose-25→ 1426
If they win+25→ 1465
If they lose-23→ 1417
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 4 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin CapernaSabir Talmoust