Kevin Caperna vs Zelim Umarov
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Zelim Umarov55%
Kevin Caperna 45%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Zelim Umarov a 55% favorite over Kevin Caperna in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Zelim Umarov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1466 to 1451, a 15-point edge.
Kevin Caperna enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Zelim Umarov 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
2-4-0Record3-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'2"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
126 lbsWeight125 lbs
Aurora MMA· 1562 avg Elo · 15 ratedTeamFight Club Berkut· 1633 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Zelim Umarov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Kevin Caperna carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1476
If they lose-23→ 1428
If they win+23→ 1489
If they lose-25→ 1441
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1496 · 6 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin CapernaZelim Umarov