Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Casey vs Rafael Natal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-6-2Record21-9-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
77,0"Reach76,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Black HouseTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Kevin Casey carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Kevin CaseyNow 1579
If they win+20→ 1599
If they lose-12→ 1567
Rafael NatalNow 1673
If they win+9→ 1682
If they lose-15→ 1658

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1612 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
3.10
54%
Strike accuracy
48%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.48
46%
Strike defense
58%
0.79
Takedown avg.
2.55
22%
Takedown accuracy
34%
27%
Takedown defense
77%
0.40
Submission avg.
0.50

Trajectory

Kevin CaseyRafael Natal
160016501700201520162017

Win method breakdown

3 (33%)
KO/TKO
4 (19%)
3 (33%)
Submission
8 (38%)
3 (33%)
Decision
9 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Rafael Natal68%
Kevin Casey 32%Elo baseline: 63%

The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 68% favorite over Kevin Casey in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).

Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1579, a 94-point edge.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Kevin Casey finishes 67% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.