Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Christian vs Mike Van Arsdale

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-4-0Record8-5-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'7"Height6'2"
80"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Cosme Junior TeamTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin ChristianNow 1559
If they win+24→ 1583
If they lose-24→ 1535
Mike Van ArsdaleNow 1560
If they win+16→ 1576
If they lose-16→ 1544

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1523 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1589 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.64
Sig. strikes / min
1.52
57%
Strike accuracy
41%
2.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.91
44%
Strike defense
42%
0
Takedown avg.
1.06
TBD
Takedown accuracy
14%
50%
Takedown defense
38%
2.34
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Kevin ChristianMike Van Arsdale
15501600165020042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
3 (38%)
5 (56%)
Submission
4 (50%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Christian52%
Mike Van Arsdale 48%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Christian a 52% favorite over Mike Van Arsdale in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Mike Van Arsdale's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1559 vs 1560), separated by just 1 points.

Kevin Christian enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mike Van Arsdale enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Kevin Christian finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Mike Van Arsdale 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.