Kevin Holland vs Randy Brown
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Holland69%
Randy Brown 31%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Holland a 69% favorite over Randy Brown in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1736 vs 1731), separated by just 5 points.
Randy Brown enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kevin Holland finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Randy Brown 65%.
Kevin Holland carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
29-15-1Record20-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'3"Height6'3"
81"Reach78"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1748
If they lose-12→ 1724
If they win+12→ 1743
If they lose-12→ 1719
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1737 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kevin HollandRandy Brown