Combat Edge Intelligence

Kevin Szaflarski vs Rodrigo Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record11-3-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
TBDReach80"
260 lbsWeight265 lbs
Renzo Gracie Jiu JitsuTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kevin SzaflarskiNow 1663
If they win+16→ 1679
If they lose-16→ 1647
Rodrigo NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1492 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1653 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.13
Sig. strikes / min
3.71
28%
Strike accuracy
47%
8.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.34
30%
Strike defense
45%
0
Takedown avg.
1.02
0%
Takedown accuracy
38%
0%
Takedown defense
61%
0
Submission avg.
0.51

Trajectory

Kevin SzaflarskiRodrigo Nascimento
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

5 (45%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
4 (36%)
Submission
6 (55%)
2 (18%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Kevin Szaflarski61%
Rodrigo Nascimento 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Szaflarski a 61% favorite over Rodrigo Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rodrigo Nascimento's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1663 vs 1666), separated by just 3 points.

Kevin Szaflarski finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Rodrigo Nascimento 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.