Khabib Nurmagomedov vs Max Holloway
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
29-0-0Record28-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'11"
70"Reach69"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Max Holloway carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1900
If they lose-14→ 1876
If they win+14→ 1844
If they lose-10→ 1820
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1722 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1791 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Khabib NurmagomedovMax Holloway
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khabib Nurmagomedov56%
Max Holloway 44%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 56% favorite over Max Holloway in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1830, a 60-point edge.
Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Khabib Nurmagomedov finishes 66% of wins inside the distance, Max Holloway 54%.
Khabib Nurmagomedov and Max Holloway share 3 common opponents: Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.