Combat Edge Intelligence

Khadis Ibragimov vs Rafael Tobias

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-7-0Record14-3-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
78"Reach74"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
Sambo PiterTeamChute Boxe Monstro

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Khadis IbragimovNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640
Rafael TobiasNow 1656
If they win+16→ 1672
If they lose-16→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1598 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.55
Sig. strikes / min
2.77
50%
Strike accuracy
36%
4.26
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.81
47%
Strike defense
35%
0.97
Takedown avg.
2.40
30%
Takedown accuracy
22%
81%
Takedown defense
100%
0.32
Submission avg.
1.60

Trajectory

Khadis IbragimovRafael Tobias
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (30%)
KO/TKO
5 (36%)
3 (30%)
Submission
6 (43%)
4 (40%)
Decision
3 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Khadis Ibragimov and Rafael Tobias within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1656 vs 1656), separated by just 0 points.

Rafael Tobias enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Khadis Ibragimov finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Tobias 79%.

Khadis Ibragimov carries a 4-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.