Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-1-0Record30-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height5'11"
75" Reach74"
186 lbsWeight170 lbs
Allstars Training Center· 1670 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Khamzat Chimaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Robbie Lawler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1842
If they lose-18→ 1810
If they win+13→ 1801
If they lose-11→ 1777
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1751 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1762 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Khamzat ChimaevRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Khamzat Chimaev73%
Robbie Lawler 27%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Khamzat Chimaev a 73% favorite over Robbie Lawler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Khamzat Chimaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1828 to 1788, a 40-point edge.
Khamzat Chimaev finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.