Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie Lawler

Oct 23, 2026

Combat Edge model forecast94%Khamzat Chimaev6%Robbie LawlerFull forecast and your pick

DateOct 23, 2026

DivisionCatchweight Wrestling

StatusScheduled

VenueBleauLive Theater

BroadcastNetwork TBD

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Friday, October 23, 2026.

US East (ET): Fri 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Fri 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sat 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sat 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sat 11:00 AM
Your time

Khamzat ChimaevBorz |15-1-0Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie LawlerRobbie LawlerRuthless |30-16-0

Khamzat ChimaevBorz15-1-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

TimeTBD

15-1-0Record30-16-0

32Age44

6'2"Height5'11"

75" Reach74"

186 lbsWeight170 lbs

Catchweight WrestlingWeight ClassCatchweight Wrestling

Robbie LawlerRuthless30-16-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Khamzat Chimaev owns a 40-point Elo edge (great). Khamzat Chimaev shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Khamzat Chimaev and Robbie Lawler across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Khamzat ChimaevRobbie Lawler

Recent form

Khamzat ChimaevL W W W W · +53 Elo last 5

LWWWW

Robbie LawlerW L W W L · +5 Elo last 5

WLWWL

Elo edge

Khamzat Chimaev1828-15 last move

Robbie Lawler1788+11 last move

Why they are ranked here

Khamzat Chimaev#4 of 280 active Middleweight fighters · 1828 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Jingliang Li (rated 1735 at the time): +30.
Costliest loss: Lost to Sean Strickland (rated 1813 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +53 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #3 Brendan Allen, 4 ahead of #5 Sean Strickland.

Robbie LawlerNot on the active ladder · 1788 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Nick Diaz (rated 1781 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to Bryan Barberena (rated 1667 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +5 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1725, not 1788: 63 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.8-2026-10-04

94%Khamzat Chimaev6%Robbie Lawler

Model favoriteKhamzat Chimaev

Elo baseline56% for Khamzat Chimaev

Matchup adjustment+38 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Khamzat ChimaevStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Khamzat Chimaev leads the full model at 94%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 38 points.

Current Elo ratings1828 · 1788Khamzat Chimaev leads by 40 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1751 · 1762Robbie Lawler faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth16 · 47 fightsRobbie Lawler has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesKhamzat Chimaev 3 · 1 Robbie LawlerStrongest available gap: Submission average toward Khamzat Chimaev.

What's at stake

Khamzat ChimaevNow 1828 · #4 Middleweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1842

Loses by decision-18→ 1810

Robbie LawlerNow 1788

Wins by decision+13→ 1801

Loses by decision-11→ 1777

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Khamzat ChimaevvsRobbie Lawler

Submission average

1.37vs0

Takedown average

5.32vs0.65

Takedown accuracy

7%vs57%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

2.98vs4.67

Finishing profile

Khamzat ChimaevKO/TKO leads 40% of wins

Robbie LawlerKO/TKO leads 73% of wins

Common opponents

Colby CovingtonKhamzat Chimaev: Upcoming · Nov 14, 2026Robbie Lawler: loss · Decision (Unanimous) · Aug 3, 2019

Tale of the tape

Khamzat ChimaevRobbie Lawler

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

4.01Sig. strikes landed per min3.85

UFC middleweight average : 3.94

54Sig. strike accuracy47

UFC middleweight average : 48%

2.98Sig. strikes absorbed per min4.67

UFC middleweight average : 3.82

52Sig. strike defense59

UFC middleweight average : 52%

5.32Takedown average0.65

UFC middleweight average : 1.62

7Takedown accuracy57

UFC middleweight average : 30%

88Takedown defense65

UFC middleweight average : 59%

1.37Submission average0

UFC middleweight average : 0.68

6Wins by knockout22

6Wins by submission1

3Wins by decision7

0Losses by knockout4

0Losses by submission5

1Losses by decision7

Khamzat Chimaev vs Robbie Lawler is a scheduled Catchweight Wrestling fight on RAF 14 : TSARUKYAN VS DANIS. Khamzat Chimaev enters with a 15-1-0 record and Robbie Lawler enters with a 30-16-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.