King Green vs Paddy Pimblett
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-1Record24-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
71″Reach 73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pinnacle MMATeamNext Generation UK
What's at stake
Paddy Pimblett is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — King Green carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1737
If they lose-10→ 1713
If they win+10→ 1805
If they lose-14→ 1781
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1689 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
King GreenPaddy Pimblett
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paddy Pimblett71%
King Green 29%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Paddy Pimblett a 71% favorite over King Green in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Paddy Pimblett holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1795 to 1723, a 72-point edge.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
King Green finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Paddy Pimblett 75%.
King Green and Paddy Pimblett share 1 common opponent: Tony Ferguson.
Paddy Pimblett carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.