King Green vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
36-17-1Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'9"
71″Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Pinnacle MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
King Green is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Thiago Moisés carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1734
If they lose-13→ 1710
If they win+13→ 1696
If they lose-11→ 1672
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
King GreenThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
King Green71%
Thiago Moisés 29%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes King Green a 71% favorite over Thiago Moisés in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
King Green holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1683, a 40-point edge.
King Green enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
King Green finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.