Kristians Boguzs vs Mathias Poiron
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Mathias Poiron53%
Kristians Boguzs 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mathias Poiron a 53% favorite over Kristians Boguzs in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kristians Boguzs's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1624 vs 1623), separated by just 1 points.
Kristians Boguzs enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Kristians Boguzs finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Mathias Poiron 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
5-0-0Record9-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
TBDHeight6'0"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+24→ 1648
If they lose-24→ 1600
If they win+16→ 1639
If they lose-16→ 1607
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 5 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kristians BoguzsMathias Poiron