Kurt Holobaugh vs Thiago Moisés
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record19-10-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
70"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Thiago Moisés is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Kurt Holobaugh carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1670
If they lose-11→ 1646
If they win+11→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt HolobaughThiago Moisés
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Moisés71%
Kurt Holobaugh 29%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Moisés a 71% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Thiago Moisés holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1657, a 26-point edge.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Thiago Moisés enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Moisés 63%.
Kurt Holobaugh and Thiago Moisés share 1 common opponent: Trey Ogden.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.