Kurt Holobaugh vs Trey Ogden
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
21-10-0Record18-7-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
70"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gracie UnitedTeamMarathon MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1669
If they lose-12→ 1645
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kurt HolobaughTrey Ogden
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Trey Ogden66%
Kurt Holobaugh 34%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Trey Ogden a 66% favorite over Kurt Holobaugh in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1657 vs 1666), separated by just 9 points.
Kurt Holobaugh enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kurt Holobaugh finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Trey Ogden 61%.
Kurt Holobaugh and Trey Ogden share 2 common opponents: Jordan Leavitt and Thiago Moisés.
Trey Ogden carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.