Kyle Nelson vs Marco Polo Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamEntram Gym
What's at stake
Kyle Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Marco Polo Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1678
If they lose-15→ 1654
If they win+21→ 1588
If they lose-11→ 1556
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1596 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonMarco Polo Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson78%
Marco Polo Reyes 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 78% favorite over Marco Polo Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Kyle Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1567, a 102-point edge.
Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Marco Polo Reyes 88%.
Kyle Nelson and Marco Polo Reyes share 1 common opponent: Matt Frevola.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.