Kyle Nelson vs Marco Polo Reyes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"ReachTBD
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamEntram Gym· 1678 avg Elo · 12 rated
What's at stake
Kyle Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Marco Polo Reyes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1679
If they lose-15→ 1655
If they win+20→ 1596
If they lose-12→ 1564
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonMarco Polo Reyes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson73%
Marco Polo Reyes 27%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 73% favorite over Marco Polo Reyes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Kyle Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1576, a 94-point edge.
Marco Polo Reyes enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Marco Polo Reyes 88%.
Kyle Nelson and Marco Polo Reyes share 1 common opponent: Matt Frevola.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.