Kyle Nelson vs Matt Frevola
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record11-6-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"Reach71"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamGracie Tampa South
What's at stake
Kyle Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Frevola carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1680
If they lose-13→ 1656
If they win+17→ 1654
If they lose-15→ 1622
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1680 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonMatt Frevola
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson70%
Matt Frevola 30%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 70% favorite over Matt Frevola in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Kyle Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1637, a 32-point edge.
Matt Frevola enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Matt Frevola 64%.
Kyle Nelson and Matt Frevola share 1 common opponent: Terrance McKinney.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.