Kyle Nelson vs Matt Sayles
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record8-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamAlliance MMA
What's at stake
Kyle Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matt Sayles carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1655
If they win+19→ 1632
If they lose-13→ 1600
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1587 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonMatt Sayles
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson61%
Matt Sayles 39%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 61% favorite over Matt Sayles in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Kyle Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1613, a 56-point edge.
Matt Sayles enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Matt Sayles 88%.
Kyle Nelson carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.