Kyle Nelson vs Steve Collins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record8-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"Reach-
149 lbsWeight156 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamGilbert Grappling· 1558 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
If they win+24→ 1695
If they lose-24→ 1647
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1519 · 8 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonSteve Collins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson55%
Steve Collins 45%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 55% favorite over Steve Collins in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Steve Collins's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1671), separated by just 1 points.
Steve Collins enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Steve Collins 50%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.