Kyle Nelson vs Steve Garcia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record19-6-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach75"
149 lbsWeight145 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Steve Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Kyle Nelson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1683
If they lose-10→ 1659
If they win+10→ 1733
If they lose-14→ 1709
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonSteve Garcia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Steve Garcia70%
Kyle Nelson 30%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Steve Garcia a 70% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Steve Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1723 to 1669, a 54-point edge.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Steve Garcia 79%.
Steve Garcia carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.