Combat Edge Intelligence

Kyle Nelson vs Terrance McKinney

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kyle Nelson
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Kyle Nelson

“The Monster”

17-7-1LightweightUFC

1669Good

Tale of the tape

17-7-1Record18-9-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"Reach73"
149 lbsWeight155 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kyle NelsonNow 1669
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Terrance McKinneyNow 1661
If they win+12→ 1673
If they lose-12→ 1649

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1671 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
6.53
46%
Strike accuracy
56%
4.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.45
54%
Strike defense
43%
1.18
Takedown avg.
3.31
23%
Takedown accuracy
0%
67%
Takedown defense
73%
0.52
Submission avg.
2.07

Trajectory

Kyle NelsonTerrance McKinney
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
9 (50%)
4 (24%)
Submission
9 (50%)
7 (41%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Terrance McKinney60%
Kyle Nelson 40%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Terrance McKinney a 60% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Kyle Nelson's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1661), separated by just 8 points.

Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Terrance McKinney 100%.

Terrance McKinney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.