Combat Edge Intelligence

Kyle Nelson vs Turpal Gediev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Kyle Nelson
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Kyle Nelson

“The Monster”

17-7-1LightweightUFC

1669Good

Tale of the tape

17-7-1Record8-0-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
71"Reach71.7"
149 lbsWeight147 lbs
House of Champions MMATeamIntegra Fight Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Kyle NelsonNow 1669
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Turpal GedievNow 1670
If they win+24→ 1694
If they lose-24→ 1646

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1670 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1503 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.60
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
46%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.48
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
54%
Strike defense
TBD
1.18
Takedown avg.
TBD
23%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.52
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Kyle NelsonTurpal Gediev
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
2 (25%)
4 (24%)
Submission
3 (38%)
7 (41%)
Decision
3 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Turpal Gediev76%
Kyle Nelson 24%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Turpal Gediev a 76% favorite over Kyle Nelson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1669 vs 1670), separated by just 1 points.

Turpal Gediev enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Turpal Gediev 63%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.