Kyle Nelson vs Zafar Mohsen
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-7-1Record15-4-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
71"Reach71"
149 lbsWeight150 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
If they win+16→ 1686
If they lose-16→ 1654
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1672 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Kyle NelsonZafar Mohsen
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson62%
Zafar Mohsen 38%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 62% favorite over Zafar Mohsen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1670 vs 1670), separated by just 0 points.
Zafar Mohsen enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Kyle Nelson finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Zafar Mohsen 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.