Combat Edge Intelligence

Lando Vannata vs Mike Grundy

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-8-2Record12-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
71"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamTeam Kaobon Wigan

What's at stake

Mike Grundy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Lando Vannata carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lando VannataNow 1571
If they win+20→ 1591
If they lose-12→ 1559
Mike GrundyNow 1649
If they win+12→ 1661
If they lose-20→ 1629

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
2.09
45%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.45
55%
Strike defense
56%
1.09
Takedown avg.
4.06
38%
Takedown accuracy
28%
69%
Takedown defense
50%
0.30
Submission avg.
0.37

Trajectory

Lando VannataMike Grundy
160016501700202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (33%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
5 (42%)
Submission
8 (67%)
3 (25%)
Decision
3 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Mike Grundy55%
Lando Vannata 45%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Mike Grundy a 55% favorite over Lando Vannata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Mike Grundy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1649 to 1571, a 78-point edge.

Lando Vannata enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Mike Grundy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Lando Vannata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Mike Grundy 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.