Lando Vannata vs Tony Ferguson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-8-2Record25-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height6'0"
71"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Elevation Fight TeamTeamKnuckleheadz MMA
What's at stake
Tony Ferguson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Lando Vannata carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+20→ 1591
If they lose-12→ 1559
If they win+9→ 1668
If they lose-15→ 1644
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1643 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1744 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lando VannataTony Ferguson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Tony Ferguson55%
Lando Vannata 45%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Tony Ferguson a 55% favorite over Lando Vannata in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Tony Ferguson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1659 to 1571, a 88-point edge.
Lando Vannata enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Tony Ferguson enters on a 9-fight loss streak.
Lando Vannata finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Tony Ferguson 80%.
Lando Vannata and Tony Ferguson share 2 common opponents: King Green and Bobby Green.
Tony Ferguson carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (2)
LossDecision (Unanimous) · 2020
LossSubmission (Arm Triangle Choke) · 2023