Combat Edge Intelligence

Lauren Murphy vs Liz Carmouche

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-7-0Record26-8-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamThe Arena

What's at stake

Liz Carmouche is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Lauren Murphy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lauren MurphyNow 1652
If they win+20→ 1672
If they lose-12→ 1640
Liz CarmoucheNow 1749
If they win+9→ 1758
If they lose-15→ 1734

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.05
Sig. strikes / min
2.78
39%
Strike accuracy
54%
5.25
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.51
55%
Strike defense
62%
1.03
Takedown avg.
2.57
25%
Takedown accuracy
34%
70%
Takedown defense
66%
0.07
Submission avg.
0.31

Trajectory

Lauren MurphyLiz Carmouche
1650170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
11 (42%)
1 (6%)
Submission
7 (27%)
7 (44%)
Decision
8 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Liz Carmouche76%
Lauren Murphy 24%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Liz Carmouche a 76% favorite over Lauren Murphy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Liz Carmouche holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1749 to 1652, a 97-point edge.

Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Liz Carmouche enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Liz Carmouche 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.