Lauren Murphy vs Roxanne Modafferi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-7-0Record25-20-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
67"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Gracie Barra KatyTeamSyndicate MMA
What's at stake
Lauren Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Roxanne Modafferi carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1664
If they lose-20→ 1632
If they win+15→ 1574
If they lose-9→ 1550
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1686 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lauren MurphyRoxanne Modafferi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lauren Murphy72%
Roxanne Modafferi 28%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Lauren Murphy a 72% favorite over Roxanne Modafferi in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Lauren Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1652 to 1559, a 93-point edge.
Lauren Murphy enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Roxanne Modafferi enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Lauren Murphy finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Roxanne Modafferi 36%.
Lauren Murphy and Roxanne Modafferi share 1 common opponent: Andrea Lee.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.