Leon Edwards vs Seth Baczynski
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-6-0Record21-16-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'3"
74" ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team RenegadeTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Leon Edwards is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Seth Baczynski carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1801
If they lose-19→ 1777
If they win+19→ 1573
If they lose-5→ 1549
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1780 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leon EdwardsSeth Baczynski
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Leon Edwards92%
Seth Baczynski 8%Elo baseline: 80%
The Combat Edge model makes Leon Edwards a 92% favorite over Seth Baczynski in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (80%).
Leon Edwards holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1554, a 242-point edge.
Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Seth Baczynski enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Leon Edwards finishes 45% of wins inside the distance, Seth Baczynski 90%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.