Leonardo Silva vs Luke Fernandez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-10-0Record6-1-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75"Reach76"
206 lbsWeight205 lbs
China TeamTeamDante Rivera BJJ· 1664 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1628
If they lose-12→ 1604
If they win+24→ 1636
If they lose-24→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1581 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1525 · 7 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Leonardo SilvaLuke Fernandez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luke Fernandez52%
Leonardo Silva 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Luke Fernandez a 52% favorite over Leonardo Silva in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Leonardo Silva's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1616 vs 1612), separated by just 4 points.
Leonardo Silva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Leonardo Silva finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Luke Fernandez 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.