Combat Edge Intelligence

Lerone Murphy vs Makwan Amirkhani

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-1-1Record20-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach72"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamSBG Ireland

What's at stake

Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Makwan Amirkhani carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lerone MurphyNow 1791
If they win+9→ 1800
If they lose-23→ 1768
Makwan AmirkhaniNow 1621
If they win+23→ 1644
If they lose-9→ 1612

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1702 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1612 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.48
Sig. strikes / min
1.33
54%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
62%
Strike defense
46%
1.41
Takedown avg.
3.96
54%
Takedown accuracy
15%
51%
Takedown defense
36%
0.54
Submission avg.
1.05

Trajectory

Lerone MurphyMakwan Amirkhani
160017001800202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (47%)
KO/TKO
1 (5%)
0 (0%)
Submission
14 (70%)
9 (53%)
Decision
5 (25%)

Combat Edge model read

Lerone Murphy92%
Makwan Amirkhani 8%Elo baseline: 73%

The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 92% favorite over Makwan Amirkhani in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).

Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1621, a 170-point edge.

Makwan Amirkhani enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Lerone Murphy finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Makwan Amirkhani 75%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.