Combat Edge Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen vs Long Xiao

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record27-11-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamXin-Du Martial Arts Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Lewis McGrillenNow 1676
If they win+16→ 1692
If they lose-16→ 1660
Long XiaoNow 1678
If they win+12→ 1690
If they lose-12→ 1666

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
5.06
TBD
Strike accuracy
47%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
TBD
Strike defense
50%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.74
TBD
Takedown accuracy
11%
TBD
Takedown defense
82%
TBD
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Lewis McGrillenLong Xiao
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (77%)
KO/TKO
5 (19%)
1 (8%)
Submission
9 (33%)
2 (15%)
Decision
13 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Lewis McGrillen61%
Long Xiao 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lewis McGrillen a 61% favorite over Long Xiao in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Long Xiao's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1676 vs 1678), separated by just 2 points.

Long Xiao enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Long Xiao 52%.

Long Xiao carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.