Combat Edge Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen vs Rafael do Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record13-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

Lewis McGrillen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Rafael do Nascimento carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lewis McGrillenNow 1677
If they win+15→ 1692
If they lose-17→ 1660
Rafael do NascimentoNow 1657
If they win+17→ 1674
If they lose-15→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
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Strike accuracy
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
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Strike defense
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Takedown avg.
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Takedown accuracy
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Takedown defense
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Submission avg.
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Trajectory

Lewis McGrillenRafael do Nascimento
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (77%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
1 (8%)
Submission
9 (69%)
2 (15%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Lewis McGrillen57%
Rafael do Nascimento 43%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Lewis McGrillen a 57% favorite over Rafael do Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Lewis McGrillen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1677 to 1657, a 20-point edge.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 77%.

Rafael do Nascimento carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.