Lewis McGrillen vs Rafael do Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-2-0Record13-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamX-Gym
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649
If they win+16→ 1673
If they lose-16→ 1641
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1514 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Lewis McGrillenRafael do Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael do Nascimento66%
Lewis McGrillen 34%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael do Nascimento a 66% favorite over Lewis McGrillen in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lewis McGrillen's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1657), separated by just 8 points.
Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lewis McGrillen finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 77%.
Rafael do Nascimento carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.