Lewis McGrillen vs Sergio Pettis
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-2-0Record25-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamRoufusport· 1685 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Sergio Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Lewis McGrillen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1697
If they lose-13→ 1665
If they win+9→ 1761
If they lose-15→ 1737
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1526 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lewis McGrillenSergio Pettis
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sergio Pettis78%
Lewis McGrillen 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Sergio Pettis a 78% favorite over Lewis McGrillen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Sergio Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1678, a 74-point edge.
Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.