Combat Edge Intelligence

Lewis McGrillen vs Sergio Pettis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-2-0Record25-8-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
Manchester Top TeamTeamRoufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

Sergio Pettis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Lewis McGrillen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Lewis McGrillenNow 1676
If they win+19→ 1695
If they lose-13→ 1663
Sergio PettisNow 1752
If they win+9→ 1761
If they lose-15→ 1737

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1717 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
3.88
TBD
Strike accuracy
37%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.91
TBD
Strike defense
65%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.85
TBD
Takedown accuracy
37%
TBD
Takedown defense
68%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Lewis McGrillenSergio Pettis
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (77%)
KO/TKO
5 (20%)
1 (8%)
Submission
4 (16%)
2 (15%)
Decision
16 (64%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Lewis McGrillen and Sergio Pettis within a point of even.

Sergio Pettis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1752 to 1676, a 76-point edge.

Lewis McGrillen finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Pettis 36%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.