Sergio Pettis vs Lewis McGrillen

Jul 18, 2026 · ESPN 2

Combat Edge model forecast70%Sergio Pettis30%Lewis McGrillenFull forecast

DateJul 18, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueMoody Center

BroadcastESPN 2

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, July 18, 2026 — watch on ESPN 2.

US East (ET): Sat 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 10:00 AM
Your time

Sergio PettisThe Phenom |25-8-0Sergio Pettis vs Lewis McGrillenLewis McGrillenThe McGrizzla |13-2-0

Sergio PettisThe Phenom25-8-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

25-8-0Record13-2-0

33Age25

5'6"Height5'6"

69"Reach68"

134 lbsWeight135 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Lewis McGrillenThe McGrizzla13-2-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Sergio Pettis owns a 74-point Elo edge (great). Tracked UFC stat edges are limited for this matchup. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Sergio Pettis and Lewis McGrillen across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Sergio PettisLewis McGrillen

Recent form

Sergio PettisL W W L L · -13 Elo last 5

LWWLL

Lewis McGrillenW L W W W · +31 Elo last 5

WLWWW

Elo edge

Sergio Pettis1752-14 last move

Lewis McGrillen1678+13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Sergio Pettis#10 of 195 active Flyweight fighters · 1752 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Kyoji Horiguchi (rated 1800 at the time): +17.
Costliest loss: Lost to Mitchell McKee (rated 1704 at the time): -14.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -13 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #9 Manel Kape, 5 ahead of #11 Ramazan Temirov.

Lewis McGrillen#88 of 316 active Bantamweight fighters · 1678 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Romero dos Reis (rated 1500 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Weslley Maia (rated 1467 at the time): -37.
Last 5 fights: 4 wins, 1 loss, +31 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #87 Lasha Abramishvili, 1 ahead of #89 Viet Anh Do.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

70%Sergio Pettis30%Lewis McGrillen

Model favoriteSergio Pettis

Elo baseline59% for Sergio Pettis

Matchup adjustment+11 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Sergio PettisStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Sergio Pettis leads the full model at 70%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model strengthens that lean by 11 points.

Current Elo ratings1752 · 1678Sergio Pettis leads by 74 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1718 · 1526Sergio Pettis faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth32 · 15 fightsSergio Pettis has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesNot enough comparable dataNo advantage is inferred when the underlying records are incomplete.

What's at stake

Sergio PettisNow 1752 · #10 Flyweight

Wins by decision+9→ 1761

Loses by decision-15→ 1737

Lewis McGrillenNow 1678 · #88 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+19→ 1697

Loses by decision-13→ 1665

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Sergio PettisvsLewis McGrillen

No tracked UFC stat edge yet.

Finishing profile

Sergio Pettisdecision leads 64% of wins

Lewis McGrillenKO/TKO leads 77% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Sergio PettisLewis McGrillen

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.88Sig. strikes landed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.71

37Sig. strike accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

2.91Sig. strikes absorbed per minNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

65Sig. strike defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

0.85Takedown averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

37Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

68Takedown defenseNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.36Submission averageNot available

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

5Wins by knockout10

4Wins by submission1

16Wins by decision2

1Losses by knockout0

2Losses by submission1

5Losses by decision1

Sergio Pettis vs Lewis McGrillen is a scheduled Fight card fight on PFL AUSTIN : EBLEN VS KASANGANAY 2. Sergio Pettis enters with a 25-8-0 record and Lewis McGrillen enters with a 13-2-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.