Lincon Santos vs Rafael Montouro
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
10-3-0Record9-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'5"
TBDReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Brazilian Top Team· 1650 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamBonsai Jiu-Jitsu· 1666 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Lincon Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Rafael Montouro carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1642
If they lose-18→ 1610
If they win+18→ 1604
If they lose-14→ 1572
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1530 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lincon SantosRafael Montouro
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lincon Santos54%
Rafael Montouro 46%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Lincon Santos a 54% favorite over Rafael Montouro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Lincon Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1628 to 1586, a 42-point edge.
Rafael Montouro enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Lincon Santos finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Montouro 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.