Logan Paxton vs Noah Gugnon
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-2-0Record10-2-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
70"Reach68"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Nick Diaz Academy· 1688 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamBulgarian Top Team· 1614 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1694
If they lose-16→ 1662
If they win+16→ 1693
If they lose-16→ 1661
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1538 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1536 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Logan PaxtonNoah Gugnon
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Logan Paxton52%
Noah Gugnon 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Logan Paxton a 52% favorite over Noah Gugnon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1678 vs 1677), separated by just 1 points.
Noah Gugnon enters on a 6-fight win streak.
Logan Paxton finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Noah Gugnon 100%.
Logan Paxton carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.