Long Xiao vs Rafael do Nascimento
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
27-12-0Record13-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'4"
70"Reach70"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1679
If they lose-12→ 1655
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1630 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Long XiaoRafael do Nascimento
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Long Xiao66%
Rafael do Nascimento 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Long Xiao a 66% favorite over Rafael do Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1667 vs 1666), separated by just 1 points.
Long Xiao enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Long Xiao finishes 52% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 77%.
Long Xiao and Rafael do Nascimento share 1 common opponent: Shuya Kamikubo.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.