Louie Sutherland vs Mac Papalii
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record3-0-0
HeavyweightDivisionSuper Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
76"Reach-
266 lbsWeight273 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamBattle Box· 1595 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
If they win+24→ 1607
If they lose-24→ 1559
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1514 · 3 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Louie SutherlandMac Papalii
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mac Papalii61%
Louie Sutherland 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mac Papalii a 61% favorite over Louie Sutherland in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Louie Sutherland's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1583), separated by just 1 points.
Mac Papalii enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Louie Sutherland finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Mac Papalii 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.