Combat Edge Intelligence

Louie Sutherland vs Yorgan De Castro

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-6-0Record12-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
76"Reach74"
266 lbsWeight265 lbs
Great Britain Top TeamTeamRegiment Training Center

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Louie SutherlandNow 1584
If they win+16→ 1600
If they lose-16→ 1568
Yorgan De CastroNow 1583
If they win+16→ 1599
If they lose-16→ 1567

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1565 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.81
Sig. strikes / min
2.46
69%
Strike accuracy
44%
2.03
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
30%
Strike defense
54%
4.95
Takedown avg.
0
43%
Takedown accuracy
0%
0%
Takedown defense
78%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Louie SutherlandYorgan De Castro
155016002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (73%)
KO/TKO
9 (75%)
0 (0%)
Submission
1 (8%)
3 (27%)
Decision
2 (17%)

Combat Edge model read

Louie Sutherland61%
Yorgan De Castro 39%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Louie Sutherland a 61% favorite over Yorgan De Castro in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1584 vs 1583), separated by just 1 points.

Louie Sutherland finishes 73% of wins inside the distance, Yorgan De Castro 83%.

Louie Sutherland carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.