Louis Smolka vs Matt Schnell
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
17-9-0Record17-11-0
BantamweightDivisionFlyweight
5'9"Height5'8"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Team Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Louis Smolka is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Schnell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1641
If they lose-13→ 1617
If they win+13→ 1619
If they lose-11→ 1595
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1570 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1674 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Louis SmolkaMatt Schnell
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matt Schnell58%
Louis Smolka 42%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Matt Schnell a 58% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Louis Smolka's way (47%).
Louis Smolka holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1630 to 1606, a 24-point edge.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Matt Schnell enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Matt Schnell 69%.
Louis Smolka and Matt Schnell share 1 common opponent: Sumudaerji.
Matt Schnell carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.