Luan Chagas vs Sergio Moraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-3-1Record14-7-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach72,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gile Ribeiro TeamTeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Luan Chagas is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Sergio Moraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1706
If they lose-18→ 1674
If they win+18→ 1659
If they lose-14→ 1627
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1673 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luan ChagasSergio Moraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luan Chagas83%
Sergio Moraes 17%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Luan Chagas a 83% favorite over Sergio Moraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Luan Chagas holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1692 to 1641, a 51-point edge.
Sergio Moraes enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Luan Chagas finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sergio Moraes 64%.
Luan Chagas carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.