Combat Edge Intelligence

Luan Lacerda vs Nathan Fletcher

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record11-3-0
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'8"
71"Reach 70"
135 lbsWeight145 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamNext Generation MMA Liverpool

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Luan LacerdaNow 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637
Nathan FletcherNow 1653
If they win+16→ 1669
If they lose-16→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1547 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.41
44%
Strike accuracy
60%
7.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
48%
Strike defense
58%
1.26
Takedown avg.
3.37
25%
Takedown accuracy
31%
75%
Takedown defense
50%
0.63
Submission avg.
0.67

Trajectory

Luan LacerdaNathan Fletcher
1650202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (18%)
11 (85%)
Submission
7 (64%)
2 (15%)
Decision
2 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Nathan Fletcher51%
Luan Lacerda 49%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nathan Fletcher a 51% favorite over Luan Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Luan Lacerda's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1653 vs 1653), separated by just 0 points.

Nathan Fletcher enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Luan Lacerda finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Nathan Fletcher 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.