Combat Edge Intelligence

Luan Lacerda vs Rinya Nakamura

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

13-4-0Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamFreelance· 1618 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Luan Lacerda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Luan LacerdaNow 1653
If they win+19→ 1672
If they lose-13→ 1640
Rinya NakamuraNow 1711
If they win+13→ 1724
If they lose-19→ 1692

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1564 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.52
Sig. strikes / min
3.27
44%
Strike accuracy
52%
7.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.72
48%
Strike defense
64%
1.26
Takedown avg.
2.58
25%
Takedown accuracy
0%
75%
Takedown defense
100%
0.63
Submission avg.
1.43

Trajectory

Luan LacerdaRinya Nakamura
165017002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
6 (60%)
11 (85%)
Submission
1 (10%)
2 (15%)
Decision
3 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Rinya Nakamura66%
Luan Lacerda 34%Elo baseline: 58%

The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 66% favorite over Luan Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).

Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1653, a 58-point edge.

Luan Lacerda finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.

Luan Lacerda carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.