Luan Lacerda vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
13-4-0Record10-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamFreelance· 1552 avg Elo · 8 rated
What's at stake
Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Luan Lacerda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1670
If they lose-14→ 1638
If they win+14→ 1703
If they lose-18→ 1671
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1614 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Luan LacerdaRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinya Nakamura64%
Luan Lacerda 36%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 64% favorite over Luan Lacerda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1689 to 1652, a 37-point edge.
Luan Lacerda finishes 85% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Luan Lacerda carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.