Rinya Nakamura vs Luan Lacerda

Mar 14, 2026 · PARAMOUNT +

DateMar 14, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueMeta APEX

BroadcastPARAMOUNT +

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, March 14, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT +.

US East (ET): Sat 9:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 6:00 PM
United Kingdom: Sun 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Sun 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 12:00 PM
Your time

Rinya NakamuraHybrid |10-2-0Rinya Nakamura vs Luan LacerdaLuan Lacerda13-4-0

Rinya NakamuraHybrid10-2-0

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

10-2-0Record13-4-0

31Age33

5'7"Height5'7"

68"Reach71"

136 lbsWeight135 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Luan Lacerda13-4-0

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rinya Nakamura owns a 37-point Elo edge (good). Rinya Nakamura shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. There are no clean shared-opponent matches in tracked pro MMA history.

Compare Rinya Nakamura and Luan Lacerda across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Rinya NakamuraLuan Lacerda

Recent form

Rinya NakamuraL W L W W · +6 Elo last 5

LWLWW

Luan LacerdaL W L L W · -16 Elo last 5

LWLLW

Elo edge

Rinya Nakamura1689-22 last move

Luan Lacerda1652-14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Rinya Nakamura#68 of 343 active Bantamweight fighters · 1689 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Toshiomi Kazama (rated 1667 at the time): +31.
Costliest loss: Lost to Muin Gafurov (rated 1669 at the time): -28.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +6 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #67 Gustavo Oliveira, 2 ahead of #69 Dan Ige.

Luan Lacerda#123 of 343 active Bantamweight fighters · 1652 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Henrique Santos (rated 1453 at the time): +19.
Costliest loss: Lost to Da'Mon Blackshear (rated 1643 at the time): -21.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -16 Elo in total.
Next places: 0 points behind #122 Kasib Murdoch, 1 ahead of #124 Aleksandr Podlesniy.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Rinya NakamuraNow 1689 · #68 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+14→ 1703

Loses by decision-18→ 1671

Luan LacerdaNow 1652 · #123 Bantamweight

Wins by decision+18→ 1670

Loses by decision-14→ 1638

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Rinya NakamuravsLuan Lacerda

Takedown accuracy

0%vs25%

Sig. strikes absorbed per min

1.72vs7.07

Submission average

1.43vs0.63

Takedown average

2.58vs1.26

Finishing profile

Rinya NakamuraKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Luan Lacerdasubmission leads 85% of wins

Common opponents

No clean shared-opponent match found in tracked pro MMA history.

Tale of the tape

Rinya NakamuraLuan Lacerda

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.27Sig. strikes landed per min4.52

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

52Sig. strike accuracy44

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

1.72Sig. strikes absorbed per min7.07

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

64Sig. strike defense48

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

2.58Takedown average1.26

UFC bantamweight average : 1.52

0Takedown accuracy25

UFC bantamweight average : 27%

100Takedown defense75

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

1.43Submission average0.63

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

6Wins by knockout0

1Wins by submission11

3Wins by decision2

0Losses by knockout1

1Losses by submission1

1Losses by decision2

Rinya Nakamura vs Luan Lacerda is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : EMMETT VS VALLEJOS. Rinya Nakamura enters with a 10-2-0 record and Luan Lacerda enters with a 13-4-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.