Luana Pinheiro vs Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-5-0Record18-13-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'4"Height5'3"
62"ReachTBD
115 lbsWeight115 lbs
Nova UniaoTeamJackson-Wink MMA
What's at stake
Luana Pinheiro is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Michelle Waterson-Gomez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1621
If they lose-17→ 1589
If they win+13→ 1595
If they lose-11→ 1571
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Luana PinheiroMichelle Waterson-Gomez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luana Pinheiro63%
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 37%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Luana Pinheiro a 63% favorite over Michelle Waterson-Gomez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Luana Pinheiro holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1606 to 1582, a 24-point edge.
Luana Pinheiro enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Michelle Waterson-Gomez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Luana Pinheiro finishes 70% of wins inside the distance, Michelle Waterson-Gomez 67%.
Luana Pinheiro and Michelle Waterson-Gomez share 2 common opponents: Gillian Robertson and Angela Hill.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.