Lucas Almeida vs Luis Pena
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-2-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'3"
74.5"ReachTBD
150 lbsWeight161 lbs
Brazilian TKO· 1643 avg Elo · 6 ratedTeamAmerican Top Team Sunrise
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
If they win+16→ 1655
If they lose-16→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1508 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaLuis Pena
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Luis Pena60%
Lucas Almeida 40%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Luis Pena a 60% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Almeida's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1639 vs 1639), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Almeida finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Luis Pena 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.