Lucas Almeida vs Michael Aswell Jr.
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-5-0Record12-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
6'0"Height5'8"
71"Reach69"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team KioshiTeam4oz. Fight Club· 1605 avg Elo · 9 rated
What's at stake
Lucas Almeida is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Michael Aswell Jr. carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1679
If they lose-17→ 1647
If they win+17→ 1661
If they lose-15→ 1629
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1623 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1613 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas AlmeidaMichael Aswell Jr.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Aswell Jr.54%
Lucas Almeida 46%Elo baseline: 47%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Aswell Jr. a 54% favorite over Lucas Almeida in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Almeida's way (47%).
Lucas Almeida holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1644, a 20-point edge.
Lucas Almeida finishes 93% of wins inside the distance, Michael Aswell Jr. 50%.
Lucas Almeida carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.