Lucas Fernando vs Mark Coleman
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-3-0Record16-10-0
MiddleweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'1"
81.5"Reach75"
185 lbsWeight205 lbs
Refit Pro FightersTeamHammer House
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+12→ 1705
If they lose-12→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Lucas FernandoMark Coleman
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Mark Coleman61%
Lucas Fernando 39%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Mark Coleman a 61% favorite over Lucas Fernando in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lucas Fernando's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1693), separated by just 0 points.
Lucas Fernando enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lucas Fernando finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Mark Coleman 75%.
Lucas Fernando carries a 7-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.